Australia's fuel supply and demand gap

Australia has large distances between major population centres and road transport is expected to continue to be the major mode of transport and the major use of transport fuels to 2030 and beyond.

Based on information released by the federal government (Geoscience Australia)***, Australia is facing major challenges in meeting its transport fuel requirements in the short term. In the long term, this challenge will be even greater.

Driving these challenges are the following factors:

• The transport sector is the largest consumer of oil, accounting for around 70% of Australia's total use of oil products.
• World demand for transport fuels is expected to rise by 37% by 2030.
• Australian has only limited domestic supplies of crude oil and relies increasingly on imports to meet demand.
• Australian primary oil production (crude oil, condensate, LPG) peaked in 2000-01 at 276 million barrels and fell 5% each year to 132 million barrels in 2007-08. It is expected to fall 2% each year to 2030.
• Net imports of oil and oil products are projected to account for 76% of consumption in 2029-30.

In the last decade, Australia has moved from being a net exporter to a net importer of oil, raising concerns for our fuel security. Oil prices and a reliance on imported oil are expected to grow in coming years. 

Australia’s oil refining capacity is generally ageing and less than world-class. Exacerbating the supply-demand gap is the potential for crude oil, condensate and naturally occurring LPG to be exported to Asia for processing and supplied to high growth countries, such as China and India, rather than to domestic markets.

Due to Australia’s abundant supply of coal, coal-to-liquids projects such as ambreCTL, could make a major contribution to improving Australia’s balance of trade in liquid fuels.